Our shrinking population | Manawatu-Wanganui News | Local News in Manawatu-Wanganui

Wanganui's population may have remained static over the past 12 months, but don't expect that trend to continue, because the head-counters in Wellington are predicting the region to lose more people in the years ahead.

According to Statistics NZ, more people left the Wanganui-Manawatu district in the year ended June 2011 than arrived.

Two years ago, the trend was bucked with more coming than going but that has rarely happened in recent years.

In 2009 the combined region saw 2719 people arrive here while 2830 left. That was a marginal loss of 11 people. In the year ended June 2010 that trend reversed with 2405 people migrating to the broader region and 2195 leaving - a gain of 210.

But come June last year, the migration had reverted. Some 2323 arrived, but 2758 left the region - a loss of 435.

The Wanganui-Manawatu region was one of five in the country to record a net migration loss. The others were Northland, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Canterbury.

And Wanganui district was among the 10 territorial authorities to record either a static or declining population. The 43,500 remains the same as the previous year.

The analysts at Statistics NZ are predicting a continuing population drop until 2031 at least, when they estimate the Wanganui district head count will be about 40,300.

It's a trend reflected in other neighbourhoods as well, with South Taranaki expected to drop to 24,700 (down 2500), Rangitikei to 12,800 (down 2400) and Ruapehu district shedding 3000 people to 11,000 by 2031.

New Plymouth and Palmerston North city, by contrast, are both expected to see their population accelerate.

And, as with a growing number of areas across the country, Statistics NZ is forecasting increasing numbers of elderly to make up Wanganui's population base while those in the younger age brackets decline.

It calculates between now and 2031 the districts' over-65 numbers will lift from the current 8000 to 11,900 while the 0-14, 15-39 and 40-64 age groups decline.

STAT'S LIFE

The analysts at Statistics NZ are predicting a continuing population drop until 2031 at least, when they estimate the Wanganui district head count will be about 40,300.

South Taranaki expected to drop by 2500

Rangitikei to drop by 2400

Ruapehu to drop by 3000 by 2031.